[ Rouleur Derby ]

Rouleur Derby Report No. 66

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

In this Rouleur Derby Report:

1. We're back!

2. That's odd? No, those are odds!

3. Cyclocross national championships



Happy new year, everyone! Rouleur Derby is thrilled to be back for its fourth season of fantasy cycling fun.

Prizes this year will work similarly to years past: There will be a $50 prize for each of the five contests: Spring Classics, Giro d'Italia, Tour de France, Vuelta a España and the World Championships. In addition, there will be a $100 prize for the overall winner at the end of the season.


A major change to play this season will be a switch from decimal payouts to fractional odds. This may take some getting used to, so pay attention.

The fraction you see represents the profit you stand to win with a correct prediction. An outcome with 4/5 odds will earn 80 percent profit. Thus, a 100-point bet would earn 80 points, plus the original 100-point stake. (Under the old system, this would have been represented as a 1.8-1 payout.)

Odds of 1/1 are considered even. That means the outcome has a 50/50 chance of happening. (Under the old system, this would have been represented as a 2-1 payout.)

Odds will never get shorter than 1/10, meaning a minimum 10 percent profit for any winning outcome. (Under the old system, the payouts had a floor of 1.1-1.)

I'm hoping this makes sense for everyone. There are some other under-the-hood changes, too, so please alert me to any bugs or errors.


Our first action comes from the tundra of Verona, Wis., and this Sunday's cyclocross national championships. Who will win the national championship? And since Katie Compton is such an overwhelming favorite, who will place SECOND in the women's national championship?


One tricky proposition regards which predicting system will fare better: Cross Results or USA Cycling? Which will successfully predict more of the top 10 of the men's race? For these purposes, a successful prediction is defined as being within one placing of the actual placing.

I've listed the final predictions in the comments for this proposition: http://rouleurderby.com/wager/cxnats-crossresults-usacycling-smackdown/

Have fun, play well, tell a friend,