[ Rouleur Derby ]

Rouleur Derby Report No. 32

Friday, April 1, 2011




In this Rouleur Derby Report:

1. Flanders Friday

2. The Fabian hedge

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1. Flanders Friday

Happy Good Friday, everyone. I hope all of your employers have give you the day off to celebrate the holiest weekend of the cycling calendar.

This is just a quick reminder that Tour of Flanders predictions are due at midnight Saturday, Chicago time. The "show" proposition has gotten the most action, but remember that only "win" comes with a 25 percent monument bonus.

http://rouleurderby.com/race/2011-tour-flanders
http://rouleurderby.com/race/2011-tour-flanders-show/

BMC's latest Flanders roster does not include Taylor Phinney, who is recovering from knee pain, so he has been scratched from the "win" and "show" propositions, and the Phinney proposition has been voided, with all bets refunded. He's still on track for Paris-Roubaix, so expect a similar proposition for next week.

I expect there will be a flurry of activity tomorrow night as players swoop in for the latest, most stable and most accurate odds. Just don't stay up too late -- we have a race to watch Sunday morning!


2. THE FABIAN HEDGE

There are several ways to bet for or against the Swiss favorite, Fabian Cancellara, which presents an opportunity to hedge your bets. At this moment he's paying out only 1.6:1 in the Fabian-versus-the-world proposition (http://rouleurderby.com/race/2011-tour-flanders-fabian-cancellara/) but 3.2:1 in the general "win" proposition (http://rouleurderby.com/race/2011-tour-flanders/), a payout that's effectively 4:1 with the monument bonus.

So, at this point, if you think Fabian will win, your best bet is in "win." If you think he won't win but aren't sure who will, your safest bet is to bet "no," which currently pays out 2.6:1, a relatively safe way to double your points.

I'm sure there's also a way to bet *for* him in one proposition and *against* him in another and guarantee a profit. I'll leave it to you to figure out the right play on that.

http://rouleurderby.com/race/2011-tour-flanders-fabian-cancellara/
http://rouleurderby.com/race/2011-tour-flanders/

Meanwhile, there's also a proposition for the marquee match-up, Cancellara vs. Boonen. Coincidentally, this one is also paying out 1.6:1 for Cancellara, 2.6:1 for Boonen. (Note that neither must necessarily win to come up a winner in this bet.)

http://rouleurderby.com/race/2011-tour-flanders-boonen-cancellara/

Have fun, play well, tell a friend,

Luke