[ Rouleur Derby ]

Rouleur Derby Report No. 13

Friday, May 14, 2010

In this Rouleur Derby Report:

1. The Giro thus far

2. Tour of California



... has been cracking! Very unpredictable racing, and the GC is still very much up for grabs.

Wednesday's team time trial was more exciting than ever, although I ended up cursing Astana even more than usual.

You can see how the points flowed in the sparklines for each team. With Christian Vande Velde out, Garmin-Transitions' payout rose from 2.6 to a close pf 4.5. Meanwhile, points flowed to Astana and BMC, which had seen success in the first few stages. Nobody paid much attention to Liquigas, however, and that yielded a 18.7:1 payout, a nice profit for Rudy and Cate, who each had five points on the men in green and now find themselves in the top 5.


With Vande Velde out, Wiggins is a lock for the Vande Velde-Wiggins proposition, but he still must finish the Giro. If he abandons, all points will be refunded.


HTC-Columbia's Andre Greipel has been a huge disappointment in the sprints. He'll likely have one more chance to pick up a first-week victory on Monday. If he fails, Mark Cavendish will need to win but one stage of the Tour of California to win the Cavendish-Greipel proposition.


The best news of all, of course, is that there has not been a doping scandal! Yet!


I expect to have at least two more propositions: Who will win the final time trial, and a second chance to pick the winner based on the leaders at the second rest day.


The premiere American stage race starts Sunday with a jaunt into Sacramento. There are five propositions open for betting, including two that focus on domestic teams: Will a domestic team win a stage? And which domestic team will have the highest placed rider? Fly V Australia is currently a big favorite, and points continue to flow its way.

The tour presents an interesting opportunity to hedge bets. The "no" option for "Will Levi win?" is currently at 2.5:1. Meanwhile, Levi's payout in the straight-up "win" proposition is 2.0:1. If the latter rises above 2, one could theoretically place points on both and guarantee a profit no matter what Levi does. But be careful: Place too many points and you'll end up moving the market and nullify that hedge.

Betting closes at midnight Saturday. Good luck!


Play well, have fun, tell a friend,